Environmental Collapse - SFN Exchange thread

Continuing commentary on our growing world-wide environmental crisis. This includes email exchanges between Members of Science Fiction Novelists writing group. It was prompted by a knotty question referencing Jared Diamond's book, "Collapse."

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Location: St Augustine, Florida, United States

Among other things I am a father, grandfather, brother, uncle and fortunate member of a large and loving family without a throw-away in the bunch. Now a writer of quips, essays and short stories, I started serious writing and my first novel at age 70. A chemical engineering graduate of Purdue University in 1949, I am a dreamer who would like to be a poet, a cosmologist, a true environmentalist and a naturalist. I've become a lecturer on several subjects. That's my little buddy, Charlie, with me in the photo. He's an energetic, very friendly Lhasa Apso born in September, 2003. He's a good one!

Tuesday, August 22, 2006

Global warming - again! Pointed humor, hasty comments and reactions with anger and hatred get much media attention. Serious effort at solving major discouraging, dangerous and very real menaces do not.

Those who shout warnings of the consequences of the popular catch phrase, global warming, are often blind to the real nature of our problems. They concentrate on and charge this relatively harmless problem almost solely to use of petroleum and other fossil fuels, and condemn and scream hatred for businesses that make profits from these fuels, a very simplistic approach. The few solutions they offer of conservation and cutting energy use would hardly make a dent in the growth of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Most of their efforts seem to be aimed at condemning those they dislike or with whom they disagree politically, particularly private industry. By concentrating on this single factor, we are ignoring an infinitely more serious menace of expanding environmental destruction by an unsustainable population of humans which continues to grow. The now massive and increasing movement or immigration of people from the third world into a first world with severely limited resources is a very real and present danger. Still, it is but one more symptom of a deeper problem that shows no sign of ending soon.

In the findings of many, the massive and growing deforestation throughout the planet may have more to do with increases in CO2 than use of fossil fuels. It definitely and directly contributes to global warming and climate change. For example: The disappearance of the snows of Kilimanjaro is directly related to the deforestation around the mountain which greatly decreases the amount of moisture in the air and thus the snowfall disappears. Global warming has virtually nothing to do with it. In truth, global warming is a symptom of a far broader problem than use of fossil fuels, which we could phase out almost completely in about ten years if we really tried.

The Kyoto protocols are a physical insult to the world by punishing those who are doing the most to preserve their environments and rewarding those that are doing the most damage. It is recognized, even by many of its supporters, to be quite ineffective in addressing the problem. The real problem is unchecked population growth, primarily in third world nations. This growth has already pushed us past the point of sustainable renewable resources and shows little signs of slowing. Massive immigration of people from the third world into first world nations is already a serious problem and shows signs of continued expansion. This coupled with the results of striving to achieve first world economies by large third world nations like China and India portends an unpleasant future for the whole world. This is pointed out by a number of serious and problems which continue to grow.

1, Deforestation and habitat destruction is continuing almost unabated in most third world nations. Growing economies like China and India have already destroyed nearly all of their forests and are exporting deforestation to places like New Guinea, Africa and South America by importing wood. Even Australia and especially Japan are conserving their forests by importing wood and thus exporting deforestation. These huge net losses of forest contribute to global warming, loss of moisture in the air and climate change, probably far more than use of fossil fuels.

2. Soil depletion and salinization has become a major problem throughout the world and especially in high use agricultural areas. Irrigation depletes sources of fresh water and contributes to higher concentration of salt in many agricultural areas making them unsuitable for crops. Many trace elements essential to the health of animals including man have virtually disappeared from agricultural soils and are not being replaced, even with massive fertilization. Many health problems related to this are growing even in the human population. Agricultural output of food products is nearing a practical maximum and is decreasing in many areas. For example, Australia, once a net exporter of agricultural food now is a net importer. Many other nations are either in the same situation or will soon be.

3. Ocean and fresh water fisheries have also reached a maximum and are declining rapidly as fish and other sea food is harvested far beyond the ability of stocks to replace themselves. Example: Orange Roughy, an Australian are salt water fish that was once seemingly plentiful is in such decline in population that it has virtually disappeared from the commercial scene and could face extinction in a few years. The problem is that it is a long lived and slow growing fish that is a relatively slow breeder. This is the case with many species of both inshore and pelagic fish species throughout the worlds oceans. Most major ocean fisheries have, in fact, crashed in recent years and continue to be plundered by high-tech fishing fleets with the ability to find and capture a larger amount of a decreasing number of fish. The end result is quite predictable and we are almost there. The loss of this protein source has and will continue to increase the demand for land grown animal protein. This in spite of the growth of “aqua culture” and “fish farms” that have their own set of environmental problems. This only serves to aggravate food shortages.

4. Fresh water is becoming less accessible, more polluted and harder to find. Pollution from human and industrial waste, and agricultural run off with insecticides, herbicides and fertilizers creates problems for and decreases availability of drinking water, fresh water fish stocks and water for irrigation. Increases of salt content now makes numerous rivers unsuitable for drinking or irrigation. Increased turbidity (from soil erosion) destroys fish stocks and causes great environmental damage when it enters the ocean, if indeed it ever gets there. Many large rivers now have so many draw downs for irrigation upstream that they are reduced to a trickle and sometimes dry up completely before they reach their mouths. The Colorado in the US and the Murray in Australia are examples. The Ogallala reservoir, a huge natural underground store of water that once was close to the surface in much of the western US from the Dakotas to Texas and from the Rockies to mid continent, has been mined mostly for irrigation water. It is now gone from most of Texas and has dropped so far below the surface as to make extraction impossible or too expensive in many areas.

5. Invasion of alien species, often by deliberate human action has brought about habitat destruction, extinction of many valuable species and devastation of numerous environments. Isolated environments are particularly vulnerable to this type of damage. Rabbits and foxes in Australia, brown tree snakes on Guam (virtually destroyed all native birds.), and many non-native birds and mammals in Hawaii (like pigs and the mongoose and including humans) are but a few examples. The deforestation and subsequent devastation of Easter Island was probably due to the invasion and uncontrolled growth of humans, rats, and chickens.

The common denominator of these five and many other negative environmental problems is the exploding growth of the human population. Virtually all isolated populations - islands, archipelagos, mountain valleys or highlands - that remained stable and maintained a sustainable environment lasted for a very long time, often in the face of climate change. Those isolated populations that did not, perished. Our entire world now finds itself in the predicament of being an island in space. We have nowhere to go! Access to another liveable planet is certainly a remote possibility in the distant future, but we don’t know if there is one out there, where it might be, and most important, we know not how to get there should we ever find it. Also, will man last long enough to do it? If we do and after we find it and find a way to get there, another daunting task will be after we get there????? I’m sure you know what I mean.

Many years ago I wrote a short story that I would post if I could find it in my paper archives. Basically it was the story of an interstellar expedition to a planet we discovered and that looked much like Earth. It was the right size, distance from its star, temperature and other physical attributes. It had an OK atmosphere, had proper oceans, weather, vegetation and probably animal life. When our colonizers finally landed they found a veritable paradise of beautiful plants and interesting animals different from those on Earth but much the same. Plants converted carbon dioxide to carbohydrates and animals ate the plants and each other, just like Earth. These pioneers drank the water and found it fine, but when they ate the plants their digestive system didn’t change them a bit, likewise the animals. The biochemistry of the life on the new planet was just enough different form our own, that eating any life form was as nourishing as eating sand or gravel. In addition, the seeds the colonists brought would not grow in the alien soil. It was just enough biologically different that our plants could not get any sustenance and died soon after sprouting. The colony finally died out from starvation in a veritable paradise of life.

NOTE: Some of this posting is similar to previously posted comments, but is included for clarity of the immediate commentary.

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